Election map: The vote for Lajos Bokros in the 2014 mayoral elections in Budapest, by individual precinct; inner Pest

Visible: all of districts V, VI, VII, VIII, and IX of Budapest, most of district XIII, and parts of districts X and XIV.

To properly view this map you have to look at it in one of the (much) larger sizes, or even in the original size (8,517 x 12,007 pixels).

Data source: valasztas.hu.
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-> Compare this map to the one showing the results by precinct of the MSzP-Egyutt 2014-PM-DK-MLP "Unity" alliance in last April's national elections.

-> View the map of the winning candidate by precinct in these mayoral elections. It also comes with a fuller introduction of the mayoral election results and the performances of both the reelected incumbent, István Tarlós, and Lajos Bokros.
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To reiterate some of the observations about the previous map that concern Bokros's performance, and to add some further off-the-cuff observations about this map:

Heightened contradictions: how the 13th district stands out even more sharply than in April

The contrasts in Bokros support between different precincts in this part of the city are even larger than those in the Unity vote in April. While the latter ranged from 26.1% (district VIII, precinct 56) to 61.7% (XIII/15), the vote for Bokros ranged from 17.9% (VIII/48) to 65.5% (XIII/44).

Compared to the Unity alliance's vote, Bokros gained even more ground in the center-left's traditional bulwark, the 13th district, and he did so both in the fairly prosperous Újlipótváros and the high-rise estates around Tüzér utca, which were already the centerpoints of Unity support last April in the part of the 13th shown on this map. This was doubtlessly in part a function of the landslide victory of the Socialist Party's incumbent district mayor, József Sándor Tóth, who was reelected with a massive 69.9% of the vote. Bokros didn't do quite as well, but with 49% of the vote to Tarlós's 36% it was nevertheless easily the best district for him.

The effect of making the 13th stand out even more on the map is strengthened, conversely, by the above-average drop-off in the Bokros vote compared with the Unity vote in April in the fifth, sixth and eighth districts. Bokros did comparatively well in the fourteenth district (Zugló), however, where controversies had swirled around the Fidesz district mayor elected in 2010, Ferenc Papcsák.

Bokros's weak performance in the eighth district

Bokros did particularly weakly in the most impoverished part of "Nyócker", the eighth district, primarily the Csarnok, Magdolna and Orczy neighbourhoods. In the eighth district overall, Bokros received 31% of the vote, compared with 35% for the Unity alliance in April and 34% for its constituent parties in May's European elections. But while he received about the same percentage as the Unity alliance in April in most of the Palotanegyed and the Corvin Sétány -- middle-class parts of the district -- he received 9-17% less of the vote than Unity in ten precincts that are overwhelmingly in the poorest 'back end' of the district. The same pattern holds when comparing Bokros's vote with that of the center-left parties in the European elections, which suggests it's not merely a consequence of asynchronous mobilization at a sharply reduced turnout, since turnout in those European elections was even worse than now.

It seems easy to speculate that this may have something to do with Bokros's personal reputation, as the author of the most sweeping package of budget cuts and austerity measures postcommunist Hungary has known when he was Minister of Finance in the mid-90s - the so-called "Bokros package". There is a lot to be said about the events that resulted in Bokros being the left's flagbearer in these elections, and a lot to respect about his ability to practically match Unity's vote last April in spite of the chaotic campaign and his last-minute emergence as the center-left's candidate. But as proponent of further radical reforms, such as the privatization of health care services, and as a former MEP who caucused with the British Conservatives in the European Parliament, he arguably made an unlikely candidate for luring the country's poor and working class voters back to the center-left opposition.

Elsewhere on the map: some interesting details

The non-13th-district neighbourhood that showed up on the map as most favourable for the Unity coalition in April was the high-rise, communist-era József Attila lakótelep. The center-left opposition outpaced Fidesz 41% to 35% there, a margin 8% more favourable for the left than that of the city-wide result. That lean faded somewhat this time: Tarlós lead Bokros 46% to 39%, which is a margin 6 points smaller than that in Budapest overall.

On a more micro level, two precincts' worth of towerblock residents in Laposdűlő, by the Hungária körút in the tenth district, reliably went for Bokros like they did for the Unity alliance in April. In the part of Kőbánya featured on this map, there was something of a contrast in April between the more Unity-friendly high-rise estates along the Kőrösi Csoma Sándor út and the more hostile courtyard and family housing areas on each side, but that contrast has faded as Bokros did relatively badly in the former and relatively well in the latter.

Similarly, a distinction was visible on April's map for the Unity coalition in central-Ferencváros between the high-rise developments near Haller utca, where Unity (as well as Jobbik) did relatively well, and the newly-fashionable redeveloped area around Ferenc ter, where Unity did badly (but the LMP did very well). That contrast has also all but disappeared on Bokros's map, as he did relatively badly in the former and relatively well in the latter, where he must have benefited from some cross-over green voters as the LMP's mayoral candidate put in a weak performance.

Taken on: October 23, 2014

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