Now, after a couple of months from the CN mirrorless announcement , it seems to be becoming clear that it would have to be a race between Canon vs Sony. At this point we can safely say the Panasonic Leica alliance seem to be failing(because of their stupid over pricing strategy). The Panasonic S1 price was leaked by Sanei news here a week ago and it was sadly mistranslated in the West.
Photo Rumors and Mirrorless rumors both posted wrongly translated the Sankei news article on Panasonic S1 report.
Mirrorless Rumors said ," Sankei believes Panasonic S1R price is above $4,000+", which Sankei never said in the original Japanese article.
Sankei said they believe the S1(not the R) would cost more than 4.5 k USD or 525000 yen. So the S1R might be even more expensive.
That said , Panasonic and Sankei news both have said that the S1 is not an entry level camera, it is a pro level hybrid camera, while the R is a still dedicated version of the S1.
In other words, they are saying the S1R is the fullframe G9, the S1 is the FF version of the GH5 and not the lower version of the S1R.
Even so, I was quite disappointed and decided not to get the new Pany regardless of the video quality or sensor quality of the S1R.
I've heard that the new Canon EOS R H or whatever called will have a 75mm plus high resolution sensor and it will cost 4000 US or a bit less. The new sensor has about 15 stops of usable DR and much more sophisticated new version of DP-AF(better video tracking Af). This new sensor will be fabricated at their new CMOS plant Canon has just completed in North Kanto region of Japan. And this new sensor plant is newer than any of these Sony plants , with 45nm process tech, so it is much more advanced than the best Sony semiconductor plant for CMOS fabrication(although both are still much more primitive than the new Intel fab or even the old 14nm Micron plant in Mid West).
I think Nikon bodies will always more expensive than the same class Canon or Sony bodies because they have no in house sensor and battery tech.
But ironically enough, Nikon will be able to get unlimited access to more advanced 45nm sensor process tech from TPSCO because they do not have their own sensor plant.
Maybe Sony will be the only one using the older 65nm or even 90nm process tech in the next few years.
Why m43 is doomed 37(updated 4):
There are many problems in the m43 world right now, and although Panasonic promises to stay there, trying to regain their lost share with a vengeance, chances are they just ignore the market altogether for a few years and then they will suddenly call it quits, just like Nikon did to their N1 system.
Still, many of us think Panasonic will be fine since they have a highly profitable niche market in Video and they are the kind of customers that will be able to spend over 3k on a body every couple of years or so. So we do not need to really worry about Panasonic at least their L mount system......
Even the m43 as a video or hybrid system may be fine and may even grow a bit over the next 2 years or so(due to the Tokyo Olympics thing). And it is also one of Panasonic's core focuses. So it is maybe really wrong to say m43 is doomed now.
The real question here now may be : m43 as a stills camera system will survive? Or will Olympus survive as a pure stills camera company without a large sensor format?
The real serous problem for Olympus now is that most of their M4/3 customers didn't select the M4/3 system for "best possible image quality ", or " best possible high ISO or base ISO DR."
Many of them just use it as a second or third camera system that is small enough to fit into their normal work bag with a decent laptop or a tablet. In my case my Panasonic is my third system but I use it exclusively for video.
Sure some of these people chose m43 as their main system, but many of them chose it because they wanted the smaller size and weight, the unique feature set, the more reasonable cost, and the "very good image quality" which was good enough for their needs. Had they wanted "best possible image quality", then they would have selected something else with a larger sensor. These people were not fools , they knew exactly what they were buying into , and still they chose m43. And I think those people saw the EM5 class of cameras as the most balanced body for that system, and some of them prefer even smaller bodies like the GM5 or the GX7.
IOW, they are not the type of customers to easily drop over 3 k on a camera body, so the margin is quite small in this market.
The problem is that the system or more precisely the middle class small sized m43 bodies that most of m43 users seem to prefer pretty much plateaued five years ago. Yes, there are better M4/3 cameras available since 2013, but they are only slightly better in terms of image quality for stills and they are all relatively big for a m43. If you need blazing fast frame rates, then you upgraded to an EM1 II or a G9. If you needed really great 4K video, then you probably upgraded to a GH5 or GH5s. But if you just wanted much better image quality than say the EM5MK2 or G85, it wasn't available as both Olympus and Panasonic have refused to put the latest sensor into their smaller more middle class bodies. They always hold back their best sensors only to their highend bodies , just like Canon did in the last round of FF war.
If you chose the latest highend models, you could get slightly better image quality even now , but it came at a high price and involves larger and heavier cameras that is actually bigger than some of the latest and best FF bodies from Sony, Nikon and Panasonic itself.
So many M4/3 users just aren't upgrading. Their older cameras are still working fine, and are still meeting their needs, so they feel no need to replace them with newer models.
Hey I mean if you are OK with a 16m or a 20mp camera and you do not need the speed of the EM1MK2 or the video of the GH5, then why do you even consider buying another similar m43 body from Olympus or Panasonic ? And this is the exact problem the m43 duo has suddenly got since about 2013.
Their current situation is a bit similar to that of Canon guys' since Canon has been also holding back their best sensors to only their most expensive models since about 2013.
Just like Canon in their FF field, with the 'the best sensor holding back' stupid marketing strategy,it has become harder for the duo to attract new users as Sony,Canon and especially Fuji have been rapidly expanding their own crop sensor MILC systems with some pretty good cameras in the same space.
I am sure as even we could see this coming long time ago, Panasonic saw this coming, and decided to add full frame to their product offerings. This should help Panasonic in the near term, as they will have new bodies and lenses to market to people who want "best possible image quality in both stills and video." And their cameras are actually really industry leading in terms of pure reliability and feature set.
Olympus decides not to follow Pana's path, since their situation is totally different than Panasonic's. Their imaging division only exists to provide technology for their medical devices, and so they don't seem to mind losing money on it. They don't feel a full frame product is necessary to get this technology they need.
And moreover, some of the industry analysts here in Japan think Olympus is just too small or weak to compete against stronger competitors who now have the advantage on them because they had such a long head start. The last time they tried to compete head to head against Canon, Nikon and Sony.... it just didn't work out well for them. (Four Thirds).
So Olympus seems to be pretty much boxed in. They can only offer more features, but they cannot offer significantly better image quality without going to a much larger sensor. Their customers are quite satisfied already and not really very demanding. As I emphasize this many times (since it is important) their customers are not the type of customers to easily spend over 3 k on a camera kit, so the margin is quite small there if they'll continue to chase their current market..
So if they decide to work within the tiny niche of the current small sensored relatively small bodied system camera market and try to keep pleasing (actually milking)their CURRENT customers, then the only one real solution left for them now is to revisit the things that attracted their current customers to M4/3 in the first place , as the above mentioned Japanese analysts group pointed out.
They basically said:
Stop trying to get marginally better image quality and stop adding more art filters and little used toy-camera-like features , and instead focus on building better, smaller, lighter cameras that truly offer more value. Put more emphasis on building better and smaller f/1.8 lenses than creating more f/1.2 PRO lenses(there are nothing pro about these).
It is very important to understand who your customer is, and serve that specific customer better..... rather than trying to wrestle with the 800 pound gorillas on their home field.
What they meant by their home field is not just FF but conservative FF with many boring dials and physical buttons. They are not saying do not go FF, but just do not do the conservative old school FF that Canon Nikon have been doing for years.
Instead , they should try more 21st century minded smart FF system in addition to their already very matured m43 system. In this way, with a FF line, they can focus on designing m43 as small as it can be. I think I agree with them on almost all points they've raised up here.
This approach may or may not work well, but doing nothing will definitely not work. Too many of m43 guys seem to be happy with their five year old cameras. Olympus needs to give those people a better reason to upgrade
Their current customers didn't want to best possible sensor level IQ in 2009, and a great many of them still don't want it today. They are basically size conscious old hipster kind of people, and they are hard people to please. They are pretty stingy cheap kind of people, so just focusing on them and try to milk them as much as they can does not work.
That is why, I really think they should at least try their version of unique FF system, with Panasonic and Leica , or with Sony, it does not really matter but at least try it as soon as possible. They have nothing to lose here.
They should try to find a bit more profitable market than the current stingy old guys dominating m43 market. They need a younger generation market. In order to do that , I think they must go either FF or more computational m43 approach. I think they should listen to the rich young Asian art school students market....actually it is a big market and they really want to get a dedicated camera for their art work. But most of them say there is no camera for them.
Then what are the main issues of the current dedicated cameras for them?
They say:
1 it is too awkward to use : too many levers , too many buttons and too many dials.
2 the back LCD is too small, they want a big and clear display like the one on the Google Pixel 3.
3 they demand one button FaceBook upload feature , and I also think it is really necessary for most of us as we are all connected to the other part of the world now. Even my old almost 70 years old father loves his Android phones and prefer the touch based UI to the old school 1950's style typical camera U.I. that many of those old gear heads at DPR or LL prefer.
4 some level of in-camera image edit-ability , at least a nice sophisticated in-camera RAW conversion program is needed....
5 much better current smartphone level touch interface.
6 more efficient easy video record-ability. For them video is a tool to document their academic life and art. Actually, it is the case for me too.
Olympus should target those rich young boys instead of never-stop- complaining old and stingy tiny camera lovers. The current m43 users are , as I already described them above, very stingy and always complaining, so even if they will have to trade the current m43 market for the new rich young student FF market, it will not be a big loss.
I mean the old bald headed hipsters will not help sustain the camera industry but those rich young Asian boys will.
In conclusion: Olympus should develop a truly 21st century minded FF camera with a huge touch screen for the rich young Asian art students market.
And at the same time, try to go back to its origin-- the tiny but really well built m43 cameras like the EM5 series used to be . And develop lenses needed to make the EM5 series like body or even better Pen F kind of body really shine. E.g., the f1.8/f1.7 small but sharp primes and sharp and compact f4 or 3.2 zooms. I think they should also consider a manual focus prime line like the Loxia for our E mount system.
Unlike many grumpy faced 100 percent m43 users, I think Olympus (of course Pana too) still have a quite huge chance winning over the CN duo in FF market since none of these 2 big players understand how to design a real 21st century minded touch based camera menu system. The smartphone gen artists do not need too many ugly levers , dials and buttons on their cameras. I think it is now easier than ever before to do it all right since the Zeiss ZX1 has just showed them how to make a real 21st century U.I. and menu system.
I think they can do it as one of their main businesses is designing medical and accounting software programs for banks and hospitals. It is not too late.
UPDATE: Now we all know that Canon Nikon new FF mirrorless cameras are both doing not that great , as many of us predicted. Nikon has already started discounting the Z7 price and now it is about 20 percent cheaper than it was in the second week of the last month October 2018.
Even after the usually fast huge discount, it is still not selling well here. The Canon EOS R is also not moving fast because most of potential EOS R buyers now know they will announce something bigger more interesting at CES or CP+ show next year. But at least the Canon is selling better than the Nikon Z7, as opposed to all those DPR spec sheet obsessed experts predicted.
And we think the main reasons for that are:
1 the EOS R is significantly cheaper , especially if you just use existing EF lenses with the perfectly designed EOS E to R adapter. The Canon adapter costs only about 9800 yen with the drop-in ND filter.
2 the Canon is more practical as a system. The R can take all the EF lenses since 1987 without any serious compatibility issue. The Nikon Z cannot say the same, it can only use the E line of the expensive Nikkor without any issue. It can take the G line too, but the AF functionality and speed of the Z will be severely compromised when used with the G or D line lenses. So there are not many lenses the Z can take without any usability related issue.
3 the Nikon F to Z adapter costs much more than the Canon EF to RF adapter. And the Canon adapter comes with a clever drop-in ND filter.
4 the initial lens lineup of the R is more practical for any CN based wedding or any event /documentary photogs.
5 In Nikon land the majority of people seem to still prefer the D850 since it is more matured with many more lenses and accessories available.
Many Nikon fanboys claim how good the Z7 and the D850 really is at base ISO(at least) and many of them trash the Canon R for having a bit worse sensor with respect to sheer resolution and DR at base ISO.
But all Nikon advantages they claim the Z7 has over the Canon R are borrowed techs from Sony or Panasonic.
There is not much Nikon about it in that body, or even in the D850 that all Nikon fanboys raved about before the Z7.
And even we admit the sensor of the Z7 is better than the Canon R sensor, the difference is really minor, it is more like an academic study case rather than a practical difference.
The DR of the R and 5DMK4 sensor is just about less than a stop worse than the Sony sensor in the Nikon Z7 at the very base ISO. And from ISO 200 or so they are all basically identical in terms of DR and color sensitivity.
Also, many people read Japanese camera industry news already know it but many Western camera medias decidedly dismiss is that Canon has renewed their CMOS plants(in 2017) and expanded their production capacity(in 2017) because they know they need more sensors for automobile and robotics business they own and also for security camera use.
In addition to that, some news papers here have reported they would sell many types of sensors for industrial use including car, security, robotics and airplane.
Panasonic has also announced their first mass production organic sensor based 8k cinema camera is coming very soon.
It will be very expensive, not affordable to most of potential FF mirrorless buyers for sure. But the point is the 8k and organic sensor tech will start trickling down to consumer grade bodies soon after the 2020 Olympics.
This means now Nikon is the only one still using the borrowed sensor tech and that will severely restrict them in many ways.
If the' Nikon will start using TPSCo sensors soon' rumor is true, then Nikon will be fine, but if they will keep depending every single core tech of their cameras on Sony , then they will have no future. Plus, many online camera sites never seem to realize this very fact but Nikon is the smallest camera company of all and least diversified one, it is a big concern for them.
I think the future of the Z system looks very bleak, and I am afraid it may be ending up to be another failed attempt from Nikon just like their Nikon One system.
UPDATE 2: Now , Olympus has officially registered the long rumored EM1MK2 replacement camera that they call "true pro camera".
I think what they meant by true pro is something like a true sports and wildlife camera for rich amatures who do not question anything but just pay 3k or more for a tiny sensored expensive camera just because it is big and super fast.
I think everybody in this class of camera market knows how much smaller the m43 sensor is compared to the sensor of the other systems and thus it is much cheaper than so-called FF or APS-C sensor. And not many people will be able to justify the price Olympus will ask for this body. It is rumored to be over 3k US, some even say it may cost more than 4k USD.
If the 4k price is right, then it would be even more expensive than the A9(the best sports and wildlife camera our money can buy). So we think it is a very bad value........in any mean.
I am sure it is a great camera in terms of speed, reach, AF,overall usability and body quality, but the tiny 43 sensor will hurt it seriously, we all know that even before its official launch.
It will be faster than the Fuji X-T3 ,but by how much?
It will be cheaper than the upcoming D6, but how much cheaper?
It will be much more tough than anything else out there , but how much more durable ?
It will have outstanding AF that may even beat the current best AF system used in the D5, but will it be able to be also beat the future A9MK2 and D6? I strongly doubt it.
I think most of people will have hard time justifying the price or just perplexed by its price , since the current best crop camera Fuji X-T3 costs only 1300 US dollars.
Olympus is obviously choosing the bigger, faster and more expensive sports camera market as their final battle field.
And this was exactly what they did in the end of the original D-SLR 43 era, to kill that system.
It seems like they never get what most of their customers want and ask us camera shops to tell them to.
They need to focus on the EM5 line not the bigger than the EM1 line. They seriously need a loud wake up call.
UPDATE3:Many Canon Nikon guys automatically assume that Sigma will always reverse-engineer to provide some lenses for the new CN systems.
Of course Sigma has the cameras and sure doing many tear- down stuffs just like LensRentals does. But it's questionable if they are going to reverse-engineer to provide lenses for RF and Z mount. After all, Sigma never bothered to offer any of their mirrorless lenses in Canon EF-M mount or in Nikon One mount even though EOS M is quite popular in Japan and Asia. Sigma offers 5 APS-C mirrorless lenses available in both E-mount and m4/3 mount, but not EF-M. Sigma also has 11 full frame E-mount lenses, and none of those are available in EF-M mount either.
Also remember that Sigma is now part of the L-mount alliance with Panasonic and Leica, and they will be making their own L-mount body. Sigma has confirmed that they will offer all their existing E-mount lenses in L-mount , plus some additional mirrroless only designs for the L mount platform.
This means the L mount team will have many lenses in a matter of a very short time, maybe even at the very launch they may have a quite respectable set of lenses.
And Tamron has also announced they would provide some of their D-SLR lenses for both the E and the L mount system soon. By contrast, they deliberately or not ignore the CN quite obviously in the last announcement here.
I think they've just calculated how much money they need to reverse-engineer the mount protocols and actually design lenses for the RF and the Z system and compared that money to how much money they may be able to earn if they try it and probably concluded it would not be worth the effort and investment.
In case of Canon R ,they may still try since it is officially a closed mount system but Canon will not sue them even if they reverse-engineer to provide some lenses in the Canon mount.
They know it from the DSLR era. But Nikon will definitely sue them and in order to do it easily they have incorporated the dual serial interfaces into their new mount design.
Sigma has lost a serious amount of money from the court trial against Nikon. And now they are really bitter to Nikon.
Sigma has repeatedly told us," unless Nikon decides to open up their mount architecture and legally license it to us, we will never try it again. We did not lose the case(Nikon lawsuit against Sigma) , but it costed us a lot of money to fight against Nikon at the court."
Cosina said similar thing a several times in 2017,
So I guess the Nikon Z may get the least thirdparty support and that may hurt them big time in sells.
Many DSLR guys automatically think the CN domination of the DSLR camera world will repeat itself again and again.
But the mirrorless game is a completely different ball game than the DSLR one, and their DSLR success story does not guarantee anything any position for them in the new mirrorless game. I think they may end up to be very small players with just 4 or 5 percent market share respectively, or the smallest players in the ILC business. They are not willing to change anything but still arrogantly believing their name alone is more than special enough to sell their very lackluster cameras. And many people never realize this but Nikon is the smallest company in the ILC industry with the least support from the major third party lens and software companies.
UPDATE4:Now we all know the Panasonic fullframe attempt is going to be a fail, as they miss-set the price too high to place it outside of the normal first time FF buyer's market.
The S1 not the R will cost more than 4k USD according to Sankei news article(not the wrongly translated English version of it that Photorumors posted a few days back).
The news paper article clearly says the S1 is not an entry level camera like the A7MK3(which is arguably also not)or the Nikon Z6 or the Canon R. It has just low resolution sensor in order to optimize its video or hybrid part of game.
Basically, according to Sankei, it will be a fullframe version of the GH5s, thus expensive , much more so than the Sony A7MK3 , the Canon EOS R and the Nikon Z6.
The S1R will be the more still focused model like the G9, thus it will not be more expensive than the more video focused S1.
It makes sense logically, but many people having waited this long to choose their first serious mirrorless system do not think like that, to them 24mp means cheap or should be cheap or affordable. Affordable is a relative term, but I think not many people call 4.5k US camera an affordable or a good value camera.
Many MILC diehards think being innovative justifies camera makers to pricing a bit higher than the rivals, and arguably Sony could do it successfully for the last 4 years or so, and many people think Panasonic is also a very innovative company when it comes to hybrid camera tech.....
Sure they and Samsung having been the most innovative camera manufactures for over a decade , but has it led their camera business to any serious commercial success?
Obviously not. The being innovative part allow does not guarantee them to be successful.
Then you might ask why Sony could get away with the "pricing everything above equivalent Canon Nikon camera" strategy? Well there are two obvious reasons for that:
1 at the time there was no rival cameras from CN to the Sony third gen A7X and A9. So they could price it a bit higher than they should have been with a real competitor from CN.
So as CN released their new A7R and A7 competitors, Sony readjusted the A7MK3 and A7R3 pricing , now I can get a new A7MK3 for just 178000 yen which is roughly 1570US....so I bought it again. The A7R3 is about 248000 yen now which is roughly equal to 2180 USD.....at that price , the A7R3 and A7MK3 are really a bargain deal.
2 lucky enough for them though , Sony is not Panasonic, they've never made any real home appliance such as rice cooker , coffee machine, home bar, etc, these are the things Panasonic has been making for years to make most of their main income. Most of people considered Sony as a serious camera brand especially in this digital age since they have always been one of those top cinema and TV camera makers, and their main business is PlayStation and insurance , so people do not have much aversion towards the image of Sony as a camera company. But many of us do have prejudice against Panasonic as a still or ILC camera company.
Basically, Sankei is saying Panasonic has failed repeatedly in their 20 years of digital camera business history since they 've never understood what their true pricing power is , or brand power recognition is in the stills camera market. So they always overpriced everything and shot themselves in the foot every time they try something new.
Also the newspaper thinks there are not enough rooms for all the 6 major FF players in the so called high-end ILC market.
There may be 4 but not 6........this means some one or two companies will have to die or give up FF, and they think it will be Panasonic.
And another big point they have made is the current FF boom is just a bubble and will not last long.
I fully agreed , and most of rational people already with a decent FF camera will agree that the latest and greatest body with the best looking spec sheet won't attract us much any more, it is all about a great set of lenses by this point, and I do not know if the A7R4 will sell as well as the R2 or the R3, the progress advancement in one or two generations is too small to justify paying over 3k USD for a body.
I think this is why the current best selling FF body is the A7R2 and used A9........not the latest and greatest.
Hey be logical , if you can get a A7MK3 for around 1500 including the tax, then why do you need to spend 1 k or more for a bit better performance for the A7R3? let alone for a much more expensive Z7?
For me , the 42mp sensor alone worth the price, but most of people do not think like that, and this is why the best selling NEW ILC cameras are all those so called entry level low resolution bodies. The main stream market do not want 40 or more mp. We are too obsessed with corner resolution and tiny bit better print quality, so we must play the chasing the best sensor available now game , and we are kind of self-brainwashing what we actually want is what we need, so we think we need the best, but the rest of more logically thinking market do not chase that, instead they look for the best value body for their comfortable budget zone.
Panasonic could not get that and about to place their new FF attempts out side of the budget range of most people(who are interested in a new system).
And their FF will most likely fail means that they may have to just terminate the m43 system development project and focus 100 percent on the new FF system.
Also, the series of stupid comments they made about their new policies and how their new systems compared to the old system hurt their reputation as a system camera manufacture.
They used to say they would release a 8k camera in the m43 mount by the Tokyo 2020 Olympics.
But now, they've been emphasizing that plan would be technologically impossible, and that was the main technological issue that forced them to go FF, etc.
They also said , 'The L alliance is like a real legal marriage. The previous arrangement [with Olympus] was more like we were just living together without any serious agreements' .
This sounds really disrespectful to the m43 users and I think this shows their true attitude towards the customers......this is why they keep failing.
To me, it looks like both Panasonic and Olympus do want to kill the m43 system by intentionally making the system less attractive to the majority of the system users.
They are definitely working against the strengths of the system, that is really stupid.
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