While I was strolling around this urban park called Atomic bomb hypocenter park, I met a couple of French tourists, they were interested in some atomic bomb related historic events here.
I also met some Asian tourists shooting some illuminated pond in the museum next to this park.
To my surprise , all of those people I met at this park had a Fuji X-T20, X-Pro2 or the GFX(I was really shocked since this was my first time to see that camera outside of my camera mall). And two of them had a Nikon D850. A couple of guys from China had A7R3 and 5DMK4, one of them told me that Sony has already become no2 in China, only 2nd to Canon.
This was my first time I met any foreigners here shooting with Fuji GFX or any Fuji (to be very accurate)..... And one of them told me that there is no more room for m43 or compact camera in his bag any more. Now it is either a big sensor ILC or just a phone, and for ultimate IQ, they always use their Fuji GFX MF camera....
I think there is still some room for a One compact like the tiny RX100 or RX10 with an incredible zoom , but m43 SYSTEM? I doubt it too.
I thought the one dying soon was Fuji in this Feb when I attended the last CP+ show in Yokohama, but now I think I was definitely wrong. It is m43 that is really super doomed and will be replaced by the One compacts and cellphones, not Fuji or Canon.
When I say Nikon is doomed or Sony is doomed , I am kind of sarcastic, but when I say m43 is doomed I mean literally I think it is really in danger, about to disappear kind of a camera system. I wonder why Olympus Panasonic decision makers never thought about this repeating of the sad reality of their original 43 history with the new system if they did not up the size of the sensor?
Or they just did not think the tech advancement in the cellphone cameras would be as fast as it has been in the real world?
Even if they thought the cellphones would not become serious threats to m43 this soon, they did not even think about the possibility of a FF mirrorless system materialized soon when they decided to launch the m43 SYSTEM in 2009? And at the time there were already a couple of APS-C mirrorless systems in 2011, so they could readjust their plans accordingly. I think m43 is really doomed now and will probably become irrelevant soon , at least for a still camera "system".
Panasonic may survive as a video or hybrid system but I think Olympus m43 will be the next Nikon One unless they will decide to fight in the FF league as they are rumored to do so soon. Now, it looks like even Thom Hogan , who has been a long time pro m43 supporter, agrees with me on this one in his recent article called, "Is m43 still a viable choice".
With that said though, I think m43 is the best sensor size for a serious enthusiast compact camera that might be able to replace the current One compacts.
Why m43 is so doomed now 27(updated):
Now m43 sells has plummeted by 30 percent or so from its peak time in 2012, just before the A7 series launch. And even many of diehard fans of that system is questioning about relevance meaning of the system in the current market.
Let's be honest even Sigma's CEO Yamaki admits that many young people see bulky DSLR's in particular as a vestige of the past and wouldn't be caught dead with one, the fad having lost its "coolness factor" some 8 or so years back. I , for one, always feel -DSLR odd whenever I try to shoot my D-SLR again. It feels so anachronistic.
But Yamaki also said:
"Mirrorless might be the future, but the tiny sensored system does not deserve much attention from the lens makers since the future set and lens set for each system will become almost identical, then the smaller the sensor the more difficult to compete in the sheer IQ and quality race. In addition, many crop sensor users do not spend much money on lenses, so it is quite difficult for our company(any other major lens makers) to justify designing many unique lenses for m43 system. We just don't see a big profit there".
This is a huge issue for m43 , it is simply always viewed this way, he is not alone.
A few years back Zeiss also said something very similar to what Mr. Yamaki of Sigma said above. And a few years back, for the same reason, Schneider decided to cancel development of a few planned m43 dedicated lenses they once announced at 2013 Photokina.
When m43 had the feature set and lens line up advantage over the rest, they could compete. But now, almost every system has an identical feature set, and a similar lens line up......and m43 has even lost the size advantage that it held long time over the APS-C and FF, many of major lens makers are wondering if it still worth investing more into this system that even Zeiss and Sigma decided to shun........
So we must ask : Is the m43 perceived any cooler than the D-SLR by the young?
I think no, all the Cool Kids take photos with their iPhones or Google Pixel phones. I don't know of any type of stand-alone camera that would qualify as cool. If there was or is such a camera system, it would have to be the One sensor compact such as Sony RX-100M5 or RX10MK4. Even my self seriously considering the RX10MK4 to replace my A6500 and A600 plus a few lenses although I will always keep my main camera system A7RX with Loxia lenses intact.
If someone doesn't want an DSLR or A7RX line camera because it's "not cool" they aren't getting a m43 or a Fuji X ,either. To normal people they are not really small or discrete at all.
Normal people may get a 1" compact, or simply use their phone. Majority of NORMAL people never care about long zooms or super wide or a set of super fast primes, or do not even understand why they might need any of those.
Actually, no camera forum denizens realize this , but we have to face the fact that all ILC cameras are big to most of NORMAL non-photographer people, and they are very intimidating to most of NORMAL people(I mean regardless of mount type or sensor size).
I never realized it before but walking around down town Fukuoka with one of my younger non-photog friends here forced me to understand it. He told me that he thinks all interchangeable lens cameras are huge and intimidating to most of average people regardless of sensor size or format, it's just simply annoying! He even said it is really pain-in-ass to use any ILC, it does not matter a m43 or a FF, but if he has to use a ILC, he will go all the way up to FF or at least APS-C cause every ILC even m43 or Nikon One feels big to him and most of normal people , anyway, and a huge lens feels extremely annoying to many people including him since it feels as though it is some how intruding into their privacy without their consent or permission. So he and his friends hate to see a big tele photo lens pointed towards them.
I guess a big lens scares or annoys people more than a big camera body......I never saw it his way but I got his point and I decided to carry my tiny Sony RX100M3 when I just walk around the city area with other people. If I am alone, then I usually carry my big camera, and I think it does not matter it's a m43, a FF, an APS-C, it is all big to most of NORMAL people, anyway, as my younger friends say............
Honestly, ILC's for the most part are a pain in the ass to use and annoying and quirky that deprives away our freedom of choice of our tourist activities or at least restrict it. You need to carry a camera bag, usually with at least one or more other lenses, you are switching lenses, and fiddling around with non-phone like ergonomics that only your creepy old boss could love, plus you must change lenses over and over every single block you walk pass by to get at least acceptable focal range like in the zoom on the RX100M5..
So normal people never buy ILC cameras, or if they buy they get a FF or APS-C.....because their friends tell them the sensor quality is everything and so go big with sensor size.
When I went down to city hall area, I saw many young people shooting their big cameras.
To my surprise, a huge group of twenty-something guys and girls, all with tripods, down at the city hall park, taking night shots of the fountain or cityscape using high end dSLRs mostly Canon 5DMK4 or 5DS-R, a few had the D850 and a few had the Sony A7X cameras. They seemed to come from a near by university photography club and they seemed to know their cameras very well since all of them had a serious dedicated cable release.
Contrary to the common forum belief many women photogs I know in real life use a big D-SLR or at least A7 or Fuji X, no one uses a m43 or Nikon One, and they tell me why.
Because to occupy a good shooting spot, they need the biggest camera and tallest tripod they can handle ..........or they'd be looked down cause Photographic world is dominated by older males who look down on young and women.......
Sad, but I think it is the reality. When I shoot paid events with D-SLRs or the A7RX, the cops or the security guys never bother me. But when I have a tiny compact camera or NEX type of mirrorless, many cops bother me. Many Westerners do not understand how look of our camera changes the way people perceive us in the public in East Asia especially in city area. It is a huge issue for us in most part of East Asia. If you are a girl not a boy, you really need a big serious looking camera to get the best position you want to get for any event you shoot here.
In China, Japan, Thailand, Korea, etc, public perception is very important, and the ignorant public usually thinks the bigger the more serious camera, or the people with a big serious looking(just looking) camera are always perceived as a serious photog or get more respect.............it is why m43 is not taken seriously in the nations with relatively tiny people such as Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Korea, Laos,etc. If you want to be taken seriously but hate a D-SLR like me, you need a highend Sony or a highend Fuji here in Japan and in most part of Asia.
A few weeks back, when I was shooting a big piano concert with my A7R2(because it had silent shooting feature unlike my Nikon d750 or Sony A7R), an old guy with Nikon D3400 told me not use a TOY for a serious event shooting...........Surprising but even old guys with Rebels or Nikon D3XXX think my Sony A7R or A7R2 a toy.........laughable but true, average people are that ignorant and proud of being ignorant.......I know many old guys think mirrorless as just a new type of point and shoot and mock it.
So public perception of cameras is very important here.
More over, often times young and trendy mom's who want the next best thing to a point and shoot shooting their kids in an event do select mirrorless, but I've never seen one with a m43 has, a flash, or a tripod. That's based on dozen of events around the world, from Hong Kong to Bangkok to Tokyo to Taipei. And I study what the crowd is doing as much as I do my own work there. Maybe , I am more interested in studying about others' choices than my own photography. It is very fun to me, observing and studying other people is really interesting some times.
Not specifically related to market share, etc.,but if you haven't read it already , NYTimes predicted which camera companies will survive and die in the next few years.
They guessed the m43 duo and the Pentax would definitely die in the next 5 years and the article was published in 2015, so they think m43 may die in the next 2 years time, just before the Tokyo 2020 thing.
Obviously, in the dawn of mirrorless era, the m43 was a very popular system, if not the most popular mirrorless system. And they obviously had feature set advantage and definitely had lens selection advantage over the Sony and Fuji.
But over the last few years time, Sony and Fuji have caught up with the m43 duo in the lens and feature set departments. And now, the m43 system has lost the size and cost advantage to the E mount and the X mount and definitely to the EOS M.
The EOS M is cheaper and smaller as a system than the m43 and most of poor students or young people just get started this hobby would buy or try the EOS M.
The m43 duo has lost a big portion of the newbie market to Canon and Sony, a big portion of the highend gear head or serious shooter market to Sony and Fuji, to a lesser extent to DSLR.
It is a huge loss to them.
Finally, contrary to the common forum belief, the younger photogs the more into heavy gear serious-looking gear, this is glaring especially in Asia.
I think it is a simple psychology case, they just want to be taken seriously.
Those do not care about how they perceived usually just use their iPhone or Google Phone, or one of the One sensored cameras, and nothing wrong with that.
So it will be a very tough fight for micro43, especially in the higher end of camera market despite of their recent excellent cameras such as G9 , GH5s and G5.
They are just too expensive and huge for the small sensor based body and as a system it is not even cheap or any cheaper than a decent FF system after normalizing the DOF or light gathering power. The 4 times smaller sensor requires at least 2 times better lens to match a even a cheap FF based system. This is why a cheap(but good) Nikon AF-S24m f1.8G on a D750 easily beat the Panasonic 12mm f1.4 or Olympus version of it on a G9(the current best m43 cam to date)...