Just 3 minutes before this shot it was raining torrential, seriously wet and my lens filter got foggy at this point.
Why m43 is doomed 37:
There are many problems in the m43 world right now, and although Panasonic promises to stay there, trying to regain their lost share with a vengeance, chances are they just ignore the market altogether for a few years and then they will suddenly call it quits, just like Nikon did to their N1 system.
Still, many of us think Panasonic will be fine since they have a highly profitable niche market in Video and they are the kind of customers that will be able to spend over 3k on a body every couple of years or so. So we do not need to really worry about Panasonic at least their L mount system......
Even the m43 as a video or hybrid system may be fine and may even grow a bit over the next 2 years or so(due to the Tokyo Olympics thing). And it is also one of Panasonic's core focuses. So it is maybe really wrong to say m43 is doomed now.
The real question here now may be : m43 as a stills camera system will survive? Or will Olympus survive as a pure stills camera company without a large sensor format?
The real serous problem for Olympus now is that most of their M4/3 customers didn't select the M4/3 system for "best possible image quality ", or " best possible high ISO or base ISO DR."
Many of them just use it as a second or third camera system that is small enough to fit into their normal work bag with a decent laptop or a tablet. In my case my Panasonic is my third system but I use it exclusively for video.
Sure some of these people chose m43 as their main system, but many of them chose it because they wanted the smaller size and weight, the unique feature set, the more reasonable cost, and the "very good image quality" which was good enough for their needs. Had they wanted "best possible image quality", then they would have selected something else with a larger sensor. These people were not fools , they knew exactly what they were buying into , and still they chose m43. And I think those people saw the EM5 class of cameras as the most balanced body for that system, and some of them prefer even smaller bodies like the GM5 or the GX7.
IOW, they are not the type of customers to easily drop over 3 k on a camera body, so the margin is quite small in this market.
The problem is that the system or more precisely the middle class small sized m43 bodies that most of m43 users seem to prefer pretty much plateaued five years ago. Yes, there are better M4/3 cameras available since 2013, but they are only slightly better in terms of image quality for stills and they are all relatively big for a m43. If you need blazing fast frame rates, then you upgraded to an EM1 II or a G9. If you needed really great 4K video, then you probably upgraded to a GH5 or GH5s. But if you just wanted much better image quality than say the EM5MK2 or G85, it wasn't available as both Olympus and Panasonic have refused to put the latest sensor into their smaller more middle class bodies. They always hold back their best sensors only to their highend bodies , just like Canon did in the last round of FF war.
If you chose the latest highend models, you could get slightly better image quality even now , but it came at a high price and involves larger and heavier cameras that is actually bigger than some of the latest and best FF bodies from Sony, Nikon and Panasonic itself.
So many M4/3 users just aren't upgrading. Their older cameras are still working fine, and are still meeting their needs, so they feel no need to replace them with newer models.
Hey I mean if you are OK with a 16m or a 20mp camera and you do not need the speed of the EM1MK2 or the video of the GH5, then why do you even consider buying another similar m43 body from Olympus or Panasonic ? And this is the exact problem the m43 duo has suddenly got since about 2013.
Their current situation is a bit similar to that of Canon guys' since Canon has been also holding back their best sensors to only their most expensive models since about 2013.
Just like Canon in their FF field, with the 'the best sensor holding back' stupid marketing strategy,it has become harder for the duo to attract new users as Sony,Canon and especially Fuji have been rapidly expanding their own crop sensor MILC systems with some pretty good cameras in the same space.
I am sure as even we could see this coming long time ago, Panasonic saw this coming, and decided to add full frame to their product offerings. This should help Panasonic in the near term, as they will have new bodies and lenses to market to people who want "best possible image quality in both stills and video." And their cameras are actually really industry leading in terms of pure reliability and feature set.
Olympus decides not to follow Pana's path, since their situation is totally different than Panasonic's. Their imaging division only exists to provide technology for their medical devices, and so they don't seem to mind losing money on it. They don't feel a full frame product is necessary to get this technology they need.
And moreover, some of the industry analysts here in Japan think Olympus is just too small or weak to compete against stronger competitors who now have the advantage on them because they had such a long head start. The last time they tried to compete head to head against Canon, Nikon and Sony.... it just didn't work out well for them. (Four Thirds).
So Olympus seems to be pretty much boxed in. They can only offer more features, but they cannot offer significantly better image quality without going to a much larger sensor. Their customers are quite satisfied already and not really very demanding. As I emphasize this many times (since it is important) their customers are not the type of customers to easily spend over 3 k on a camera kit, so the margin is quite small there if they'll continue to chase their current market..
So if they decide to work within the tiny niche of the current small sensored relatively small bodied system camera market and try to keep pleasing (actually milking)their CURRENT customers, then the only one real solution left for them now is to revisit the things that attracted their current customers to M4/3 in the first place , as the above mentioned Japanese analysts group pointed out.
They basically said:
Stop trying to get marginally better image quality and stop adding more art filters and little used toy-camera-like features , and instead focus on building better, smaller, lighter cameras that truly offer more value. Put more emphasis on building better and smaller f/1.8 lenses than creating more f/1.2 PRO lenses(there are nothing pro about these).
It is very important to understand who your customer is, and serve that specific customer better..... rather than trying to wrestle with the 800 pound gorillas on their home field.
What they meant by their home field is not just FF but conservative FF with many boring dials and physical buttons. They are not saying do not go FF, but just do not do the conservative old school FF that Canon Nikon have been doing for years.
Instead , they should try more 21st century minded smart FF system in addition to their already very matured m43 system. In this way, with a FF line, they can focus on designing m43 as small as it can be. I think I agree with them on almost all points they've raised up here.
This approach may or may not work well, but doing nothing will definitely not work. Too many of m43 guys seem to be happy with their five year old cameras. Olympus needs to give those people a better reason to upgrade
Their current customers didn't want to best possible sensor level IQ in 2009, and a great many of them still don't want it today. They are basically size conscious old hipster kind of people, and they are hard people to please. They are pretty stingy cheap kind of people, so just focusing on them and try to milk them as much as they can does not work.
That is why, I really think they should at least try their version of unique FF system, with Panasonic and Leica , or with Sony, it does not really matter but at least try it as soon as possible. They have nothing to lose here.
They should try to find a bit more profitable market than the current stingy old guys dominating m43 market. They need a younger generation market. In order to do that , I think they must go either FF or more computational m43 approach. I think they should listen to the rich young Asian art school students market....actually it is a big market and they really want to get a dedicated camera for their art work. But most of them say there is no camera for them.
Then what are the main issues of the current dedicated cameras for them?
They say:
1 it is too awkward to use : too many levers , too many buttons and too many dials.
2 the back LCD is too small, they want a big and clear display like the one on the Google Pixel 3.
3 they demand one button FaceBook upload feature , and I also think it is really necessary for most of us as we are all connected to the other part of the world now. Even my old almost 70 years old father loves his Android phones and prefer the touch based UI to the old school 1950's style typical camera U.I. that many of those old gear heads at DPR or LL prefer.
4 some level of in-camera image edit-ability , at least a nice sophisticated in-camera RAW conversion program is needed....
5 much better current smartphone level touch interface.
6 more efficient easy video record-ability. For them video is a tool to document their academic life and art. Actually, it is the case for me too.
Olympus should target those rich young boys instead of never-stop- complaining old and stingy tiny camera lovers. The current m43 users are , as I already described them above, very stingy and always complaining, so even if they will have to trade the current m43 market for the new rich young student FF market, it will not be a big loss.
I mean the old bald headed hipsters will not help sustain the camera industry but those rich young Asian boys will.
In conclusion: Olympus should develop a truly 21st century minded FF camera with a huge touch screen for the rich young Asian art students market.
And at the same time, try to go back to its origin-- the tiny but really well built m43 cameras like the EM5 series used to be . And develop lenses needed to make the EM5 series like body or even better Pen F kind of body really shine. E.g., the f1.8/f1.7 small but sharp primes and sharp and compact f4 or 3.2 zooms. I think they should also consider a manual focus prime line like the Loxia for our E mount system.
Unlike many grumpy faced 100 percent m43 users, I think Olympus (of course Pana too) still have a quite huge chance winning over the CN duo in FF market since none of these 2 big players understand how to design a real 21st century minded touch based camera menu system. The smartphone gen artists do not need too many ugly levers , dials and buttons on their cameras. I think it is now easier than ever before to do it all right since the Zeiss ZX1 has just showed them how to make a real 21st century U.I. and menu system.
I think they can do it as one of their main businesses is designing medical and accounting software programs for banks and hospitals. It is not too late.